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00:18
Sep 04
Sep 04
Thread Guy
1h
MSGS
FAMI 1ST
HOOD
MU FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
NBA fraud risk threatens Madison Square entities
The Clippers' historic sanction for salary-cap fraud shows NBA franchise fraud is at all-time highs and the next reported target is the Knicks. Because Madison Square Garden's sports/venue complex is publicly tradable, the same kind of league investigation could create major public-market risk; he estimates the Clippers would be down 50% if they were a stock.
MSGS WATCH
FAMI tokenized pump likely delisting
The FAMI tokenized-stock pump was not officially supported by the issuer; whoever ran the coin was manually attaching shares to the LP, so the rally came from retail buying the penny stock on Robinhood rather than the token. He expects this to become a securities-fraud case and says FAMI is going to get delisted as it falls back to 13 cents.
FAMI AVOID
HOOD looks incredible on onchain revenue
Robinhood's onchain/tokenization rollout is generating standout revenue: he highlights $4 million made on chain in one day, about 25% of total revenue on the blockchain and an annualized run-rate that is massive relative to Bitcoin's chain, and the stock is breaking out. He thinks HOOD could really go and calls the trade clean.
HOOD LONG
Avoid memory and AI momentum semiconductors
AI/memory/momentum semis are distributing while the broad market is green: DRAM, Micron, SK hynix and the semiconductor complex are red/down, Broadcom crushed earnings and fell, and after the Leopold blowup he does not expect momentum leaders to V-recover. Micron looks gross and money is rotating to crypto.
MU AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
ANOM hits billion if Bitcoin breaks
He increasingly likes ANOM at 220 and thinks it is hard to see a scenario where ANOM does not reach $1bn market cap if Bitcoin breaks 82, because Bitcoin bull-market wealth generation would fuel Robinhood-chain meme/social-trading leaders.
ANOM LONG
Robinhood chain attracting returning OG capital
Veteran crypto traders who already made fortunes are returning specifically because Robinhood's onchain/social-trading rollout excites them, unlike Solana; new DeFi games are brewing every week, FOMO is adding fuel, and TVL is still low for a chain trying to tokenize equities. He is putting capital into Robinhood-chain coins and sees the leaders as PAWN, AI and Cashcat.
PAWN LONG
AI LONG
CASHCAT LONG
PUMP still reacts if Bitcoin breaks
He has an oversized PUMP position but is not panic dumping. PUMP is still the biggest alt gainer into Bitcoin strength, and if Bitcoin breaks 82 in a bull market he expects PUMP to react strongly; he plans to trim some into Robinhood-chain exposure but is sitting in the core for now.
PUMP LONG
Solana rebound likely after Bitcoin breaks
He finds it hard to believe Solana plays no role this cycle: if Bitcoin legs up and Robinhood chain generates wealth, capital should rotate into Solana as a second beneficiary. The market has quickly priced a worst-case scenario for SOL, which he sees as too bearish.
SOL LONG
Bitcoin bull market if 82 breaks
He believes this is a bull market and expects Bitcoin to go for it again after the current chop. A decisive break above 82 would accelerate the market and make things get stupid; gold strength and strong onchain/stock flows support the constructive crypto setup.
BTC LONG
HIGH
00:14
Sep 04
Sep 04
MSFT
ORCL
AMZN FLIP
GOOGL FLIP
AAPL
▾
HIGH
AI money shifts to software/platforms.
AI is broadening from hardware/infrastructure into service productization, so money is rotating into mega-cap software, cloud, and platform names such as Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Tesla while semiconductor names stall. Park views this as a healthier AI rally and a bullish setup for AI application and cloud/platform leaders.
MSFT LONG
ORCL LONG
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
AAPL LONG
META LONG
TSLA LONG
Money rotating to non-semiconductor Korean sectors.
Semiconductor positions are already crowded and filled, especially Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at roughly 40% of Korean portfolios, so incremental money is rotating into non-semiconductor Korean sectors such as shipbuilding, nuclear, secondary batteries, transformers, shipbuilding equipment, financials, insurance, and oil refining. This is a supply/money-flow rotation rather than a semiconductor fundamental breakdown.
Korean non-semiconductor sectors LONG
BOJ hike headlines threaten KOSPI volatility.
BOJ 50bp September rate hike speculation and yen carry unwinds have triggered sharp algorithmic and passive-driven selloffs in KOSPI. These episodes may keep recurring as Japan-related rate headlines hit the market, so the setup is to monitor KOSPI volatility around BOJ risk events.
EWY WATCH
US equities resilient, likely continue higher.
Despite macro risks and elevated Treasury yields near 4.8%, US equities are not breaking down on bad news and rallied after Fed officials hinted at a September pause. Park interprets this resilience as an internal market strength signal and expects the US market to continue higher unless it fails to rally on positive news.
NASDAQ Composite LONG
Samsung Electronics chart poised to break up.
Samsung Electronics is forming a tightening basing pattern with declining volatility and holding support despite market wobbles. Park sees the stock building energy and views it as likely to break upward even though the current chart feels frustrating.
005930.KS LONG
Korean HBM share keeps strengthening.
Samsung Electronics' HBM share has risen meaningfully while SK Hynix and Micron both gave up some share. Korean memory makers remain strong in HBM, with SK Hynix still holding first place and Samsung improving, supporting the Korean memory complex.
000660.KS LONG
Naver Cloud AI consortium stocks may move.
Naver Cloud's consortium was selected to develop a cybersecurity-specialized AI foundation model, and Park says related stocks tend to move on this kind of news, creating a short-term tradeable momentum setup in Korean AI/cybersecurity-related names.
035420.KS LONG
Korean nuclear has Q4 contract catalysts.
Korean nuclear names are attracting renewed interest because existing supply contracts are expected around late September and the fourth quarter, providing a catalyst for the group. Doosan Enerbility is specifically noted as seeing inflows.
034020.KS LONG
HIGH
00:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Bancos brasileiros
—
Agronegócio brasileiro
▾
HIGH
Bancos enfrentam deterioração de crédito severa
Os balanços dos bancos brasileiros mostram preocupação unânime com o mercado de crédito e expectativa de segundo semestre bastante ruim. Há piora crescente da alavancagem e da cobertura de juros das empresas, aceleração da inadimplência de curto prazo na maioria dos bancos, e o crescimento explosivo do crédito consignado privado reduz o caixa disponível para pagar cartão de crédito e outras dívidas, pressionando a qualidade do crédito.
Bancos brasileiros AVOID
Fiagros mal originados expõem crédito agro
Fiagros concederam crédito a milhares de empresas do agronegócio por meio de gestores sem especialização no setor, em um período de juros baixos e aceleração da concessão. Isso gerou má origem de crédito e exposição a um segmento com governança frágil e liquidez baixa, o que pode resultar em perdas.
— AVOID
Agro enfrenta tempestade perfeita de crédito
O agronegócio brasileiro passa por uma tempestade perfeita: má concessão de crédito, alavancagem tomada em juros baixos, explosão dos custos de insumos, queda dos preços de commodities, quebras de safra e problemas climáticos, margens baixas e ciclo de safra que só permite pagar dívidas na safra seguinte. Isso se soma a empresas familiares com pouca governança e elevou as recuperações judiciais no setor.
Agronegócio brasileiro AVOID
HIGH
23:46
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
1h
MAGS
AMZN
GOOG
META
MSFT
▾
HIGH
Magnificent 7 are cheap and buyable.
The Magnificent 7 have been written off and left behind the market, but after balance sheet damage and multiple compression they are now cheap. With everything at a price, Cramer says these former losers can be winners and it is time to buy them.
MAGS LONG
AI/data center profits make Amazon cheap.
CEO Andy Jassy says Amazon will make immense money from AI and data centers; AWS compute sales may be pulled forward, plus a $50B semiconductor business, healthcare, international, grocery and advertising. Up only 12% YTD and trading around 20x earnings, Amazon is a screaming buy.
AMZN LONG
Cloud growth makes Alphabet cheap at 17x.
Alphabet is up only 9% YTD and has been left behind despite Google Cloud's monster growth, Waymo doing terrifically, YouTube's scale and Gemini optionality. At $342 and about 17x earnings, it sells at the price where Cramer wants to own it.
GOOG LONG
Lawsuit settlement removes existential risk; Meta cheap.
The teen-abuse lawsuit settlement for up to $18B over 10 years was a huge win and removes what Cramer thought could be an existential threat. Meta is the best advertising medium in history, WhatsApp is undervalued, and the stock is down 7% YTD at 19.5x earnings.
META LONG
Azure disclosure and power deals favor Microsoft.
Microsoft is giving better Azure disclosure, finding more things to like. It secured a large 2.67 GW behind-the-meter power deal with Chevron for data centers, and Copilot is gaining acceptance, making the stock attractive within the cheap Mag 7 group.
MSFT LONG
Inference edge and valuation make Nvidia cheap.
Nvidia bought Hugging Face, strengthening open-source AI and inference capabilities, rebutting the training-only criticism. The stock trades at less than 15x next year's earnings, and aggressive buyback management could drive it 50% higher.
NVDA LONG
Tesla down 60% seems wrong.
Tesla is down 60% for the year, which Cramer says seems wrong; the main catalyst he cites is a potential SpaceX buyout.
TSLA LONG
Procter lacks growth; not recommending now.
Procter & Gamble has no growth, and at 21x earnings with a 3% yield that is not enough to attract investors. Cramer is not recommending it now and would wait for it to fall to 19x earnings before buying.
PG AVOID
Pullback makes GEV attractive; orders continue.
The wind business has been disappointing and the chart has been poor, but orders should continue from hyperscalers. GEV has fallen a long way from its high, so he is not that worried and would keep buying, especially on another $100 decline.
GEV LONG
Government overhang masks 100% belief in Intel.
Intel had an unbelievable quarter but the stock fell because of the government stake overhang. Cramer says his belief in Intel is 100%; he wants to see the government exit or he may buy more anyway to average down.
INTC LONG
Buy Walmart and put it away.
Walmart is a continually good company that no one gets excited about, while Target is energized. Cramer still says buy Walmart and put it away, expecting investors will be happy.
WMT LONG
Strong quarter makes Five Below buyable.
Five Below reported a superb quarter with 14.1% same-store sales growth, big earnings beat, raised guidance and strong back-to-school trends under CEO Winnie Park. The stock sold off on deceleration fears and oil-price worries, but at under 24x earnings with over 50% expected growth, Cramer calls it a steal and buy.
Five Below LONG
Promising precision medicine; wait for pullback.
Natera has transformed from prenatal testing into a precision medicine platform with strong cancer-test volume growth, transplant tests, raised revenue guidance, and a large Druckenmiller position. The stock has run up and is not cheap on sales, so Cramer would wait for a pullback before buying.
NTRA WATCH
UNH has enough profitable growth to buy.
UnitedHealth has enough profitable growth for a portfolio. Last quarter was very good even though the market initially disliked it, and Cramer says UNH is good to buy.
UNH LONG
Prefer J&J and Lilly over Pfizer.
Among big pharma, Johnson & Johnson is best to buy with a AAA balance sheet and 18 drugs without expiration problems; Eli Lilly has a huge franchise drug. Pfizer is creeping up but needs a reason to recommend, so the order is J&J and Lilly, then Pfizer.
JNJ LONG
LLY LONG
Rate stability will unlock SoFi fundamentals.
SoFi has delivered durable growth: revenue up more than 40% in the first two quarters, record margins, diversified revenue split 60% lending/40% non-lending, and 20 consecutive quarters above the rule of 40. The stock has been held back only by interest-rate uncertainty; once rates are stable or declining, fundamentals should play through.
SOFI LONG
CoreWeave is the only neocloud to own.
In neocloud, Cramer says CoreWeave with Michael Intrator is the only one he likes; the other neocloud names are too speculative for him.
CoreWeave LONG
Box is finally breaking out; ownable.
Box is finally breaking out after years of doing nothing, has good storage assets, a good CEO in Aaron Levie, and is okay to own as it starts to get some momentum.
BOX LONG
Rate declines and money flows support stocks.
Stocks are a cheap date when interest rates tick down or Fed officials signal no hikes; money floods in. Structural supports include record 401(k) millionaires, large new brokerage account flows, a comeback in individual stock ownership, and a potential slew of takeovers reducing share count.
SPY LONG
HIGH
23:41
Sep 03
Sep 03
TLT
CIBR 1ST
DTCR
WTI
UGA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Fed should cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve should lower interest rates because inflation and CPI data support it. This policy push implies lower bond yields and higher Treasury prices.
TLT LONG
AI-driven cyberattacks require AI cyber defense.
The cyberattack landscape is about to change completely, and the only way for society to defend against an incoming wave of AI-driven cyber threats is to use models like Astra. This supports rising demand for AI-enabled cybersecurity.
CIBR LONG
Data centers bring economic and power benefits.
Communities that embrace data centers will get strong economics, more power built, lower local power prices, tax revenue, and better community outcomes. Communities that reject data centers will lose out to other communities.
DTCR LONG
Strait of Hormuz oil flows still constrained.
Oil and product exports through the Strait of Hormuz have increased in recent weeks but remain below prewar levels, while bypass routes through Saudi Arabia and the UAE are still down 40%. New bypass projects will take years, so the Strait remains a critical oil chokepoint.
WTI WATCH
Venezuela deal won't quickly lower gas prices.
Even if the Venezuela oil deal is real, experts say it would take a very long time to mean anything for average Americans, so gasoline prices are unlikely to get quick relief.
UGA LONG
Tariffs would pressure Russian energy buyers.
Tariffs on buyers of Russian energy are needed because, unlike sanctions, they cannot be circumvented. They would force countries to choose between doing business with the U.S. or Russia, and most will choose the U.S., pressuring Russian energy exports.
Russian energy AVOID
HIGH
23:08
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
028260.KS 1ST
005490.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI to rise on yields, yen
Kwon Soon-woo expects the KOSPI to rise because long-term U.S. Treasury yields are easing and the yen is strengthening after Bank of Japan officials signaled they may raise rates flexibly, possibly in larger steps. He argues this reduces pressure to sell U.S. Treasuries, supports the Nasdaq, and creates a positive spillover for Korean equities.
EWY LONG
US tariff pressure threatens Korean chipmakers
Kwon Soon-woo warns that U.S. semiconductor tariff and factory construction pressure is intensifying on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Washington is using tariffs and incentives to force U.S. fab investment, and the historical U.S.-Japan semiconductor pact shows such pressure can become a serious threat to Korean chipmakers even though Korea benefited from that episode in the past.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
Samsung C&T wins SMR construction projects
Samsung C&T is participating as the EPC partner in a 1.2GW SMR project with GE Vernova-Hitachi. Kwon Soon-woo argues Korean construction companies are indispensable for SMR and nuclear power construction, and Sweden's plan to add large nuclear and SMR capacity by 2045 supports a long project pipeline.
028260.KS LONG
POSCO leads green steel with BHP
POSCO is partnering with BHP to commercialize hydrogen reduction steelmaking in Australia, where it can obtain iron ore directly from BHP and produce green hydrogen locally, positioning it to commercialize world-first green steel.
005490.KS LONG
OCI supplies solar for AI datacenters
OCI is building a 260MW solar power plant in Texas for AI data-center power demand, and Kwon Soon-woo highlights its integrated supply chain: U.S.-based module production in San Antonio plus non-China polysilicon production in Malaysia.
456040.KS LONG
HIGH
22:05
Sep 03
Sep 03
22:03
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY 1ST
GLD
UUP
BTC
ETH
▾
HIGH
Yen strengthens on BOJ and carry unwind.
The yen rallied on rising Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations, and markets began pricing up to 50bp of tightening; the speaker sees this as enough to trigger yen carry-trade liquidation. Treasury Secretary Bessent is also described as tolerating a stronger yen and weaker dollar to reduce abrupt one-way repricing, giving the yen trend policy support.
FXY LONG
Gold and crypto rally on dollar debasement.
Dollar weakness tied to yen strength and Bessent's policy stance revived the debasement trade. Gold rebounded, Bitcoin jumped more than 5%, Ethereum/XRP/Solana advanced, and the speaker says the market sees this as a durable multi-month theme that can run at least until the midterms rather than a short-term bounce. Gold miners like Newmont and crypto proxies like Strategy are direct beneficiaries.
GLD LONG
UUP SHORT
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
XRP LONG
SOL LONG
NEM LONG
MSTR LONG
Oil and gas supported by geopolitical risks.
Middle East uncertainty continues to support crude prices, with Iran/Kuwait missile and drone strikes pushing Brent toward $96. Winter supply risks add pressure: Russia/Ukraine energy infrastructure attacks, constrained Hormuz/Qatar flows, low European natural gas storage, and possible U.S. crude export restrictions could keep energy prices supported.
BNO LONG
UNG LONG
Hugging Face boosts Nvidia's open ecosystem.
Nvidia's Hugging Face acquisition is strategically positive because Hugging Face is a platform hub that can steer developers to Nvidia's Nemotron open models. This strengthens Nvidia's open-model leadership, enterprise offline/security appeal, and ecosystem lock-in.
NVDA LONG
Snowflake AI data platform accelerates growth.
Snowflake's revenue growth is re-accelerating, and half of the recent acceleration is AI-driven. As a centralized data platform for hyperscalers, AI adoption naturally increases platform usage, leading to repeated post-earnings gap-ups.
SNOW LONG
Lululemon losing share to Alo and Skims.
Lululemon fell another 17% to around $100 and made a new low. The speaker argues the competitive moat is narrowing as credible competitors such as Alo and Kim Kardashian's Skims take share, making this a structural threat rather than just a weak tape.
LULU AVOID
Broadcom AI demand and value remain strong.
Broadcom's AI setup remains intact: AI demand is described as very hot and just beginning, with increasing accelerator shipments to Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic plus XPU growth. Morgan Stanley sees attractive valuation and strong growth even though near-term expectations need adjustment, and networking is also expected to grow quickly.
AVGO LONG
Meta's open model closes AI gap.
Meta's Musepark 1.3 open-weight model meaningfully closed the gap with frontier models and showed the largest coding-agent performance improvement. The speaker says this supports the open-model trade and reduces the need to pay for expensive proprietary models, which is why the market rewarded Meta.
META LONG
OpenAI Astra reduces Oracle earnings pressure.
OpenAI's Astra release strengthened Oracle: the speaker says Oracle regained confidence on the Astra announcement, and next week's Oracle earnings pressure was reduced because Astra's strong reception supports cloud and AI infrastructure demand.
ORCL LONG
Tesla Cybercab catalyst fuels upside.
Tesla rose over 5% into the Cybercab robotaxi reveal, recovering its post-earnings drop. The market expects the reveal will not disappoint, with real Cybercab videos already circulating, no steering wheel or pedals, and Musk framing it as a premium lounge on wheels; the speaker says rapid commercialization is key.
TSLA LONG
ChargePoint surges on strong EV charging.
ChargePoint surged nearly 80% on strong earnings. As an EV charging operator, it is positioned to benefit from positive electric and autonomous vehicle momentum tied to Tesla's robotaxi expansion and broader EV infrastructure demand.
CHPT LONG
Robinhood's own chain creates new revenue.
Robinhood rose nearly 20% after building its own chain, cutting its reliance on Ethereum/Solana, and enabling meme-coin creation that drove record 24-hour network revenue. The speaker says the market recognizes this as a new profitable crypto market structure.
HOOD LONG
Circle benefits from stablecoin bill passage.
Circle broke above $100 and surged after the market began to price a stablecoin-related credit bill passing around the 15th; the speaker frames this as a specific legislative catalyst for the stablecoin and crypto infrastructure name.
USDC LONG
Bessent actions may cap Treasury yields.
The speaker argues that with Bessent's September 9 long-bond event approaching, bond shorts and bond vigilantes should be nervous and Treasury yields cannot be assumed to move only higher. Bessent's dollar and rate strategy is working to pull U.S. yields down, so long-duration Treasuries are supported near term.
TLT LONG
HIGH
22:01
Sep 03
Sep 03
AI-centric corporate bonds
CIEN
FIVG 1ST
SMH 1ST
GOOG 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI-centric corporate bonds face supply pressure.
Massive hyperscaler and AI-tangent investment-grade issuance has hit the market. About $400 billion of hyperscaler debt since early last year is mostly underwater as credit spreads widen and Treasury yields rise, making lenders demand more clarity or margin of safety, a likely speed bump for AI-centric credit into September and October.
AI-centric corporate bonds AVOID
Ciena is long-term AI infrastructure winner.
Ciena is part of the winning AI-infrastructure group because optical networking is a critical enabler of AI and the network is now the critical path. Demand is not the problem; supply is. Ciena has secured supply for the next couple of years, has visibility and large backlog, and expects baseline revenue growth next year of about 30%, potentially higher if it can secure more supply.
CIEN LONG
Optical networking capacity build is multiyear.
Optical networking is the critical path for AI as data moves out of data centers. Networks are underinvested globally, and compounding waves of cloud connectivity, training, inference, agentic AI and robotics will drive a multiyear massive buildup of optical capacity with few waning moments.
FIVG LONG
Semiconductor AI boom is early innings.
She has seen many semiconductor cycles and believes the AI and memory chip boom is early innings, not near a peak. Demand drivers now include processors, GPUs, memory, and ancillary areas like power management and connectivity, with durable U.S. leadership and no sign yet of excess capacity that would mark a top.
SMH LONG
AI capex boom still supported by earnings.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are in an unprecedented AI capex boom, with annualized capex around $1.7 trillion and 42% year-over-year growth. Visible Alpha consensus sees almost $1 trillion more from here, and the big hyperscaler spenders still have earnings to back up the spending with little disconnect so far.
GOOG LONG
MSFT LONG
META LONG
ORCL LONG
Cautious equities until margin safety improves.
He sees tight valuations, elevated P/E multiples, tight credit spreads and bullish sentiment against risks from massive Treasury and corporate supply, AI capex concentration, and a softening labor market. He wants a bigger margin of safety in credit spreads and equities before deploying capital, so he is cautious into September and October.
SPY WATCH
International earnings aided by weak dollar.
U.S.-style earnings strength is also showing up in Europe, emerging markets and China. A weaker dollar helps U.S. investors in local-currency assets when repatriating, and deglobalization, reshoring and a capex wave are supporting those markets.
VGK LONG
EEM LONG
FXI LONG
Gold benefits from de-dollarization trend.
Gold is partly defensive portfolio ballast but also a direct play on a waning dollar, de-dollarization, and reduced foreign appetite for U.S. debt and dollar-denominated assets, driving a bid for gold.
GLD LONG
Lock in high short-duration yields.
She believes the Fed's next move is lower, not higher, though not until 2027. Buying short-duration bonds now lets clients lock in high yields and provides ballast despite interest-rate volatility.
SHY LONG
Adobe faces AI disruption risk.
Adobe chose an internal CEO, but the stock is down after hours because its broader AI story is difficult. The company is under pressure from the concern that generative AI will eat into software companies like Adobe.
ADBE AVOID
Lululemon product problems still unresolved.
She put a sell on Lululemon two years ago at $500 and remains bearish: two years of product mistakes, heavy discounting, margin pressure, rising competition, an unfocused brand, and now a global comparable-sales problem. A turnaround under the new CEO will take six to twelve months.
LULU SHORT
HIGH
21:47
Sep 03
Sep 03
NVDA 1ST
TSLA
PSP 1ST
Secondaries
Infrastructure funds
▾
HIGH
Hugging Face diversifies Nvidia's AI ecosystem.
Nvidia is a massive resource that can help Hugging Face scale as the key open-model platform, while keeping it independent and not forcing users onto Nvidia chips, reinforcing Nvidia's AI ecosystem.
NVDA LONG
Cybercab demo drives Tesla event risk.
Tesla's Cybercab plan has major holes including regulatory approval and deployment details, but the stock is rallying into today's Texas demo event, making it a key event-driven setup.
TSLA WATCH
Private markets capture pre-IPO value creation.
High-quality companies are staying private longer and public listings are declining, so investors should use private equity and secondaries to access value creation before companies go public.
PSP LONG
Secondaries LONG
Use infrastructure funds for AI exposure.
Investors wanting thematic AI exposure through alternatives can use infrastructure funds that invest in data centers, water and other inputs supporting increased AI investment.
Infrastructure funds LONG
Snowflake's AI products lift revenue outlook.
Snowflake raised its full-year product revenue outlook above Street expectations, helped by AI products like the Coco coding assistant that signed 2,000 new customers.
SNOW LONG
Beef shortage squeezes Tyson margins.
Tyson is under pressure from a shrinking U.S. cattle herd and beef shortage, causing margin compression and a reduced fiscal-year outlook.
TSN AVOID
Demand weakness hits Campbell sales.
Campbell is seeing weak demand, possible GLP-1 and health-related shifts, tariff pressure, and cut its dividend, leading to short-term pressure.
CPB AVOID
Software sentiment shifts to AI strength.
Software sector sentiment has shifted from AI disruption fears to AI-enabled strength, with strong results from Snowflake and Salesforce and the iShares Software ETF now positive year-to-date.
IGV LONG
HIGH
21:46
Sep 03
Sep 03
Commodity indices (broad)
DIESEL
UGA
WTI FLIP
BNO
▾
HIGH
Own full commodity indices for supercycle
Commodities are in a durable supercycle caused by years of underinvestment after 2014, ESG-driven refinery closures and broad supply shocks across food, fuel and supply chains; diesel links all commodities, and broad commodity indices have been the best-performing asset class since October 2020, so investors should own full commodity indices rather than try to pick rotations.
Commodity indices (broad) LONG
Diesel and gasoline prices stay high
Diesel and gasoline prices are the real consumer inflation risk and are not coming down because the world destroyed refining capacity and has no strategic reserves for refiners; with crude around $94 and diesel around $189, products remain extremely tight and diesel prices should stay or go up.
DIESEL LONG
UGA LONG
Long crude, short diesel crack spread
Record diesel crack spreads near $106 have made refining highly profitable, enticing buyers like China to chase crude, so the near-term trade is long crude oil and short the diesel crack spread as oil plays catch-up and the spread corrects.
WTI LONG
BNO LONG
Diesel crack spread SHORT
Higher wheat and grain prices coming
Grains, especially wheat and corn, are going higher because Ukraine took out the Black Sea grain corridor, the US is struggling with weather/El Nino, Russia has export disruption, and diesel costs plus biofuel demand add support.
WEAT LONG
CORN LONG
DBA LONG
Gold rallies on debasement and real yields
Gold is supported by the end of petrodollar recycling after 2022 Russian central bank sanctions, central banks shifting from Treasuries to gold, declining real yields, and financial repression/debasement; the risk-reward favors being long gold now.
GLD LONG
Own gold silver platinum palladium basket
Own the precious metals basket of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium as hard assets; do not try to pick individual metals.
PPLT LONG
PALL LONG
Copper is the new oil
Electrification is accelerating for security rather than environmental reasons, making the 'big security metals' — copper, aluminum, nickel, silver, lithium, and cobalt — bullish; aluminum can substitute for copper above ground but buried urban cables still need copper.
COPPER LONG
Aluminum LONG
NICKEL LONG
SILVER LONG
LITHIUM LONG
Cobalt LONG
Whole oil complex heads higher
Crude and the whole oil complex are moving higher because supply losses are broader than the Strait of Hormuz: Red Sea disruptions, Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea oil ports and Russian refining, Chinese refinery cuts, low Rhine and Panama limits, and global inventories drawing 4-6 million barrels per day; China is buying crude to capture refining margins, and oil prices are now catching up to product prices.
XLE LONG
HIGH
21:28
Sep 03
Sep 03
LULU 1ST
VSCO 1ST
NKE
▾
HIGH
Lululemon product failures justify sell rating.
Lululemon has had two years of product mistakes and is stuck in a discounting cycle, with clearance items up 50-80% year over year and gross margins down several hundred basis points. North America comps are down double digits and international has turned negative, while Alo and Vuori are taking share. Widlitz put a sell on the stock when markdowns appeared in December 2024 and says the brand needs a full product overhaul.
LULU SHORT
Victoria's Secret turnaround is working broadly.
Victoria's Secret is proof that a product-led retail turnaround can work: comparable sales are up 9% after a two-year turnaround, and the brand is attracting both under-$50,000 and over-$200,000 shoppers, with the high-income cohort performing best.
VSCO LONG
Nike product problems make it unattractive.
Nike's recent trajectory is a caution sign: over the past two years it has struggled in both wholesale and DTC, product has not worked, competition has taken over, and it is going through a margin cleanup. This makes an incoming Nike executive the wrong obvious choice for Lululemon and leaves question marks about Nike itself.
NKE AVOID
HIGH
21:16
Sep 03
Sep 03
BNO
Diesel crack spread
USE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Supply tightening pushes Brent to $100.
The oil market is tightening: floating crude inventories fell by about 190 million barrels from mid-July, onshore inventories fell another 38 million barrels, Middle East exports remain sharply below the June peak, strategic reserve releases are fading, and Chinese crude imports have stopped freeing up barrels. Morgan Stanley now forecasts Brent to average $100 per barrel in Q4.
BNO LONG
Refinery outages push diesel cracks to records.
Global refinery outages are running 5-6 million barrels per day above normal, reducing crude demand but shifting tightness into refined products. Diesel is the clearest example: US front-month diesel was recently around $195 per barrel versus Brent at $95, and the diesel crack spread reached around $100 per barrel, an all-time high.
Diesel crack spread LONG
USE LONG
HIGH
21:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
USD
US market
▾
HIGH
Diversify Brazilian portfolios into US assets
Brazilian investors should reduce home bias and dolarize part of their portfolios by using the Nômade platform to access the US market, including US fixed income, equities, and other dollar-denominated assets, gaining exposure to a strong currency and diversification outside Brazil.
USD LONG
US market LONG
HIGH
20:58
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWZ
BOVA11.SA
USD/BRL
SPY
QQQ FLIP
▾
HIGH
Election shift fuels Brazilian equity rally
As pesquisas eleitorais mostram Flávio Bolsonaro à frente ou empatado no segundo turno, mudando as expectativas para uma possível alternância de poder. Isso fez o Ibovespa tocar 184 mil pontos e o EWZ voltar a 38 pontos, com apostas crescentes em um rally da bolsa brasileira.
EWZ LONG
BOVA11.SA LONG
Dollar drops as election bets shift
O dólar recuou para R$ 5,06/5,07 e depois passou a ser negociado em R$ 5,10, refletindo a mudança de expectativa eleitoral e as apostas em rally da bolsa brasileira, o que pressiona o dólar contra o real.
USD/BRL SHORT
Waller's no-hike signal boosts US stocks
A fala de Christopher Waller sinalizando manutenção de juros, com a frase 'dar uma chance à desinflação', mudou a precificação do Fed e fez as bolsas americanas dispararem, com S&P 500 subindo 1%, Nasdaq 1,4% e Dow Jones também em alta.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
DIA LONG
Debasement trade drives gold higher
Com inflação ainda elevada, fiscal precário e bancos centrais tendendo a reprimir juros ou monetizar dívida, os investidores buscam ativos reais não inflacionáveis. O ouro subiu 2% a US$ 4.478 por onça, e bancos centrais seguem aumentando ou repatriando reservas de ouro.
GLD LONG
Debasement trade drives Bitcoin rally
O Bitcoin rompeu US$ 81.700, patamar não visto desde maio, impulsionado pela busca por ativos que protegem contra a depreciação monetária, por ser descentralizado, não confiscável e não sujeito a inflação política.
BTC LONG
Election hopes close Brazil yield curve
A curva de juros brasileira vem fechando nos últimos pregões por conta da mudança de expectativa eleitoral, refletindo melhora na percepção de risco político/fiscal e apostas em juros menores na frente.
Brazilian government bonds LONG
BOJ hike expectations strengthen yen
O iene japonês se fortaleceu quase 2% contra o dólar, voltando a 155,7, com expectativa de que o Banco do Japão possa subir juros ou intervir após forte depreciação anterior da moeda japonesa.
JPY LONG
Ukraine attacks push diesel crack spreads
O diesel segue em patamar elevado, a US$ 4,58, com o crack spread nas máximas históricas porque a guerra na Ucrânia atingiu a infraestrutura de refino e distribuição da Rússia, impactando o mundo inteiro.
Diesel crack spread LONG
Diesel deficit pressures Petrobras
Com o óleo diesel 91% defasado ante o preço internacional, o preço interno teria praticamente que dobrar para convergir. Isso pode trazer pressão para a Petrobras e risco de desabastecimento.
PETR4.SA AVOID
HIGH
20:47
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
4h
NVDA
SPY
▾
HIGH
Nvidia buying Hugging Face adds distribution hedge
Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face gives it the place where developers decide which model to run, adding distribution. It accelerates open-source growth and acts as a hedge: the clouds hedge hyperscalers, and Hugging Face hedges closed labs building their own chips.
NVDA LONG
S&P 500 still below high, data-dependent
The S&P 500 is still below last week's intraday high, so the market is not in the clear yet. Yields have not made dramatic moves, and the market remains in suspense about upcoming data and what it means for the Fed.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
20:37
Sep 03
Sep 03
AIRLINES 1ST
Hotels 1ST
Luxury travel
High-end hotels
U.S. defense and munitions sector
▾
HIGH
Record travel spending with more upside.
The U.S. had a record summer for travel driven by the World Cup and America 250, with travel spending up 6% and airlines and hotels recording their best summer ever; he sees room to grow from about 70 million annual visitors toward 100 million if policy headwinds are removed.
AIRLINES LONG
Hotels LONG
JETS LONG
Affluent travelers keep high-end spending strong.
The affluent traveler has played a critical role over the last 18 months, with upper-end consumers willing to pay $2,000 a night for hotels and spend heavily on concerts and live events, reflecting a post-COVID YOLO preference for experiences that keeps high-end travel strong.
Luxury travel LONG
High-end hotels LONG
Precision munitions stockpiles require replenishment.
While the U.S. has large stocks of less sophisticated weapons, precision and other guided munitions are being used faster than industry can replenish them, so stockpiles of those munitions are diminishing; this points to sustained replenishment demand for defense and munitions production.
U.S. defense and munitions sector LONG
U.S. cyber defense needs investment.
U.S. offensive cyber capabilities are world-class, but defensive capabilities are fragmented because 85% of critical infrastructure is in private-sector hands and not all of it is well defended; that gap requires focused investment in cybersecurity defenses.
CIBR LONG
U.S. AI models lead global frontier.
Commerce Secretary Lutnick argues the smartest AI models in the world are American, acting as the teacher at the frontier, while Chinese open-source models are students always a little behind, supporting U.S. AI leadership.
U.S. AI sector LONG
HIGH
20:23
Sep 03
Sep 03
HIMS
ARB
ETH
▾
MED
Tokenized meme-stock pumps will get crazier.
Kain frames the tokenized HIMS pump on Robinhood Chain as the crypto reinvention of meme stocks. The trade was to squeeze the tokenized stock and force arbitrage between the onchain token and the much larger underlying equity; this specific attempt may not have worked, but the principle is viable and crypto's attention cycle will produce crazier recursive versions.
HIMS WATCH
Robinhood chain activity benefits Arbitrum and Ethereum.
Kain notes Robinhood Chain's tokenized-stock and FOMO activity is an L3 on Arbitrum and tied to Ethereum, and that the activity is going pretty well for Arbitrum. If the tokenized equity or meme-stock trade scales, Ethereum mainnet is arguably a better venue because it has more liquidity, stablecoins, and buying power.
ARB LONG
ETH LONG
MED
20:19
Sep 03
Sep 03
Artificial Intelligence
CIBR
▾
HIGH
AI capabilities and cost improvements accelerating.
Astra is described as a step change in AI capability: it lets non-engineers interactively build complex software, run scientific simulations, build financial models and complete DIY projects. Altman also highlights Astra's token efficiency and OpenAI's 80% Luna price cut as proof that AI costs can fall dramatically while the opportunity remains huge, keeping him bullish on AI adoption and abundance.
Artificial Intelligence LONG
AI cyber threats demand AI defense.
Altman warns the world is very close to a complete change in the cyber attack landscape because models are becoming capable of finding and developing zero-day exploits. He argues the only way society can collectively defend itself is to rapidly deploy AI tools like Astra, implying a coming increase in demand for AI-enabled cybersecurity defense.
CIBR WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Wealthion
5h
SILVER
GDX
XAU 1ST
SIL
GLD
▾
HIGH
Silver could reach $300 to $500.
Silver should trade at $300 to $500. Michael Oliver measures silver relative to gold: silver was about 6.5% of the gold price in 1980 and 3.1% in 2011 but is now only about 1.5-1.6%. Silver has already broken above a 10-year range relative to gold and held above key levels during the pullback from the January high. Gold has had two eight-fold bull markets while silver's current cycle is only about four-fold from its 2015 low, leaving room for silver to double or nearly five-fold just to return to its 1980 relative high. He expects silver to outperform gold.
SILVER LONG
Gold and silver miners are historically undervalued.
Gold and silver miners are historically underpriced relative to gold and are approaching a major technical breakout. The XAU index used to average about 25% of the price of gold, with a historical floor near 18%, but now sits only around 8%. GDX divided by gold is about 2.07% and is pressing against a multi-year rectangle near 2.2%; a breakout would be a massive long-term signal. Miners have already been outperforming gold for several years and are probably the most profitable sector in the U.S. stock market, and just moving back to the old floor could more than double the miners.
GDX LONG
XAU LONG
Prefer silver miners over gold miners.
Michael Oliver personally favors silver miners over gold miners, though he expects both to do well. Silver has already emerged above a 10-year range relative to gold and held above key levels even during the pullback, giving silver miners more relative upside. He notes that miners have been doing much better than gold over the last several years despite most investors still viewing them negatively as 'dogs.'
SIL LONG
Gold becomes money during debt crisis.
Oliver expects the coming miner-spread breakout to be accompanied by more market focus on the collapsing U.S. government bond market and a government debt crisis. This debt-crisis regime should accelerate demand for monetary metals. He argues that this time gold will not simply rally and fall back; gold becomes money, supporting a bullish stance on gold.
GLD LONG
U.S. government bond market is collapsing.
Oliver warns that the U.S. government bond market is collapsing and expects a government debt crisis to become a central market focus once the miner-versus-gold spread breaks out. This is a negative setup for U.S. government bonds and a source of stress that could accelerate demand for monetary metals.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
19:35
Sep 03
Sep 03
19:15
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
6h
VSCO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Victoria's Secret has strong growth momentum
Victoria's Secret delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of growth with net sales up 10%, adjusted operating income up 125%, and EPS tripled. The slight top-line miss was a deliberate choice to avoid discounting and pursue a higher-quality result. The company is gaining market share in bras, seeing growth across VS and PINK, attracting higher spend across all income cohorts, and entering the back half with momentum from the returning fashion show and Angels Among Us.
VSCO LONG
HIGH
18:53
Sep 03
Sep 03
30-year TIPS
IGOV 1ST
Private credit funds
US Corporate Credit
AI buildout
▾
HIGH
Long-dated TIPS yields are attractive.
Thirty-year TIPS yields are nearly 3%, the highest in several decades, reflecting anticipated U.S. growth. Real yields are therefore quite high and attractive to lock in.
30-year TIPS LONG
BOJ shift forces global yields higher.
The Bank of Japan's balance-sheet rolloff and move from deeply negative to positive interest rates is forcing a synchronized repricing across developed market yields. The U.S. is no longer pricing in a vacuum, so global developed sovereign yields are rising together in a fundamental shift.
IGOV SHORT
Private credit redemptions signal caution.
Blackstone and Cliffwater are capping private credit redemptions again, and investors are turning against private credit funds. Redemption requests remain elevated with a large backlog, while new fundraising is falling because investors are less willing to commit when exits are restricted.
Private credit funds WATCH
Credit dispersion creates investment opportunities.
Corporate credit dispersion is rising, and a large amount of debt is trading wider than its rating suggests. AI funding needs, China competition for carmakers, and software business-model disruption are creating investment opportunities for investors who look underneath the index calm.
US Corporate Credit LONG
AI build-out is the key driver.
The core market driver is the AI build-out and how it will be funded. Near-term Fed policy, inflation, and unemployment data are mostly distractions compared to the AI capital expenditure and funding cycle.
AI buildout LONG
Fed hikes could stabilize long-end Treasuries.
BNP Paribas forecasts three Fed hikes beginning in December. A more credible, hawkish Fed could bring stability to the long end and modestly lower long-end Treasury yields, which would help corporate borrowers access that part of the curve.
Long-End U.S. Treasuries LONG
Buyback bluff too small to lower yields.
Scott Bessent's Treasury buyback bluff is far too small to work because the Treasury is a forced seller of roughly $2 trillion of bonds annually while the extra buyback was only around $2 billion. The mismatch means the attempt backfired and cannot reliably bring yields down.
TLT AVOID
Prefer investment-grade credit over T-bill roll risk.
The 'T-bill and chill' trade carries reinvestment risk if investors roll short-term bills at lower rates. He prefers the certainty available in the investment-grade credit market and warns against overconcentrating in T-bills.
LQD LONG
BIL AVOID
HIGH
18:45
Sep 03
Sep 03
Crypto lending platforms
NEXO 1ST
BITO 1ST
BLCN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Crypto lending resurges as holders borrow.
Crypto-backed lending is growing again because long-term digital asset holders are bullish and do not want to sell, selling triggers tax consequences, and platforms like Nexo make it easy to access liquidity against crypto, similar to home equity or securities-backed lines of credit.
Crypto lending platforms LONG
Nexo's risk management and compliance differentiate it.
Nexo differentiates itself through conservative loan-to-value ratios, a proprietary automated partial-liquidation engine, compliance partnerships such as Backed and MiCA, global reach across more than 200 jurisdictions, and having survived major downturns including 2022; management is bullish on the US re-entry and continued growth.
NEXO LONG
Wealth transfer drives crypto structural adoption.
About 60% of the market already has some crypto exposure, younger generations are more favorable toward crypto, and a $75-80 trillion wealth transfer will let them allocate more into digital assets; in the US, investors will increasingly shift from traditional retirement-market ETFs into direct digital asset holdings.
BITO LONG
Payments infrastructure is moving on-chain.
Major financial and payments players are moving on-chain: 21 major banks announced they will use an existing chain, Visa posted a $7 billion annual on-chain run rate, and Western Union is also involved; this shows real payments and financial infrastructure adoption is happening now.
BLCN LONG
HIGH
18:44
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
6h
WTI
UGA
TLT 1ST
U.S. power generation
URA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Venezuela deal adds oil supply, lowers prices.
Vance says gas prices are high because Iran is attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; US naval protection has kept about 15 million barrels per day flowing and prevented a worldwide energy crisis, but Iran remains disruptive and Vance refuses to promise a return to $3 gas.
WTI SHORT
UGA SHORT
Fed should lower interest rates.
Vance says the administration believes the Federal Reserve should be lowering interest rates because inflation and CPI numbers justify it, and that lower rates would help Americans afford homes and borrowing.
TLT LONG
US must build power for AI.
Vance argues data center backlash is mostly about power costs, and the administration has made it easier to build nuclear and other power plants next to data centers and require power fed back to the grid; the US must become a nation of builders to win the AI race, with China now producing three times US power.
U.S. power generation LONG
URA LONG
DTCR LONG
US manufacturing renaissance underway.
Vance says ISM manufacturing PMI has expanded for eight months and is at historic highs, tax cuts are driving record business purchases of capital equipment, and tariff threats against offshoring are supporting a manufacturing renaissance and factory jobs.
U.S. manufacturing sector LONG
HIGH
18:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
6h
SNOW
MSFT
IGV
TOST
TTAN
▾
HIGH
Snowflake is agentic AI data governance layer
Josh argues Snowflake was unfairly punished in the software selloff and is the data-governance layer for the coming agentic AI era. He notes 120-130% net revenue retention, existing customers spending more with no drop-off, and says 9,000 customers are already running agentic workflows directly inside Snowflake data lakes. He is long the stock, which nearly doubled from his late-May call around $205.
SNOW LONG
SaaS apocalypse narrative follows price, false
Jim says the SaaS apocalypse narrative followed price and was driven by hedged shorts and positioning, not fundamentals. Earnings now show software companies were doing fine; even Microsoft was below $400 for much of the first half, and now fundamentals give a lot of reasons to be in software spaces.
MSFT LONG
Software bearish narrative died; IGV recovers
Bryn argues hedge funds have been short the software basket and many software names have had V-shaped bounces off the bottom. She says IGV is about to make a race back to its highs, and the bearish software narrative that these companies are going away has died. The danger is getting too bearish on technology sectors and letting narrative replace price.
IGV LONG
Vertical SaaS disintermediation fears are wrong
Josh says he averaged down into Toast and ServiceTitan because the market narrative had it backwards: Silicon Valley assumed AI would disintermediate SaaS middlemen, but businesses want SaaS vendors that can be held accountable, and vertical end users like restaurant owners and contractors will not build their own software. Toast and ServiceTitan are now selling AI to their existing customer bases.
TOST LONG
TTAN LONG
Private credit systemic-risk narrative wrong
Bryn argues the private-credit systemic-risk narrative went hand in glove with the SaaS-apocalypse narrative and should be debunked too. Names at the epicenter such as Blue Owl and Apollo are up about 30%, showing the bearish thesis was wrong and these stocks are working.
APO LONG
OWL LONG
HIGH
18:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
6h
SRVR 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI compute demand strains data center infrastructure.
New frontier AI models are substantially more compute-intensive, and model releases are hitting data center infrastructure that is already constrained, especially on GPUs. Simultaneous benchmark demand and China's distillation efforts create cascading overloads and outages, keeping AI data center capacity tight.
SRVR LONG
HIGH
18:33
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
7h
SNOW
TWLO 1ST
PLTR 1ST
CRWD 1ST
OKTA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Snowflake accelerates growth on AI data demand
Snowflake is an accelerating growth story that raised its profit outlook for the third consecutive quarter. As companies adopt AI, Snowflake's data analytics platform helps make data actionable, and its AI agent coding tool CoCo added about 2,000 new customers this quarter, bringing the total to over 9,000. Snowflake also has partnerships with both Anthropic and OpenAI.
SNOW LONG
Software reports soften AI bear case
Twilio, Palantir, CrowdStrike, and Okta all delivered better-than-expected reports, and together with Snowflake's numbers these results soften the AI bear case for traditional software and raise the debate on whether software companies will be replaced by AI.
TWLO LONG
PLTR LONG
CRWD LONG
OKTA LONG
HIGH
18:24
Sep 03
Sep 03
CoinDesk
7h
BTC
AIQ 1ST
HYPE
3-month U.S. Treasuries
10-year U.S. Treasuries
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin can hit $1.3M by 2035.
He expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100K this year and reach $1.3M by 2035 because conditions are extremely bullish; crypto has formed a bottom, Wall Street is returning from summer to allocate, and Bitcoin is the fastest horse if governments inflate away the debt load. He also says 0% Bitcoin is a misallocation.
BTC LONG
Own AI stocks for growth scenario.
In the debt endgame, investors should own both AI stocks and Bitcoin: if Treasury Secretary Bessent is right that AI growth lets the US grow out of its debt, AI stocks win; if he is wrong, governments inflate the debt away and Bitcoin wins. He advises owning both to win either scenario.
AIQ LONG
Hyperliquid TAM is misunderstood 100x.
Hyperliquid has a catalyst in moving into the US market and is misunderstood: the market sizes it against the $2T crypto market, but it is serving all global assets, a $200T market, so its TAM could be 100x larger and it looks attractive.
HYPE LONG
Shorten bond duration to three-month Treasuries.
He sees investors reducing bond-side risk by shortening duration: instead of owning 10-year Treasuries, own three-month Treasuries and add crypto risk to get return. The traditional 60/40 portfolio is 100% fiat currency, so bond portfolios should avoid long-duration risk.
3-month U.S. Treasuries LONG
10-year U.S. Treasuries AVOID
Zcash fills privacy demand outside institutions.
As Bitcoin becomes institutional, a portion of the market will want something outside the institutional realm. Zcash is filling that privacy demand and is a unique story, making it one of three crypto stories to pay attention to.
ZEC LONG
Own L1 basket, not single winner.
He prefers a portfolio bet on layer-1 networks for tokenization rather than picking one winner: he would own ETH, Solana, Avalanche and maybe some XRP. The L1 winner is not 100% clear, and he compares owning a basket to owning Google, Yahoo and Ask Jeeves instead of betting on one during the internet bubble.
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
AVAX LONG
XRP LONG
Tokenization has 2,000x growth runway.
He believes tokenization and real-world assets are a decade-long supercycle: there is about $300B tokenized today versus $600T global assets, a 2,000x growth runway, so anything touching tokenization will have a bid for a long time.
Tokenized real-world assets LONG
Aave is pure play tokenization.
Aave is a very specific pure play in tokenization and real-world assets and is doing well; he names it among his top three tokenization bets.
AAVE LONG
Uniswap brand too small at $5B.
Uniswap is cleaning up from its Robinhood integration and at roughly $5B market cap is remarkably too small for its global brand; it will integrate extremely well in tokenization.
UNI LONG
Stellar leads non-US sovereign debt tokenization.
Stellar's tokenized real-world asset market has surged to nearly $4B and it is number one globally in tokenized non-US sovereign debt. Denelle sees the next leg of growth in private credit, non-US sovereign debt, money market funds and US-backed treasuries, with the opportunity in non-US government debt bigger than most people realize.
XLM LONG
HIGH
17:54
Sep 03
Sep 03
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield
AI-related infrastructure
WTI 1ST
XLE 1ST
XLK
▾
HIGH
Long-term yields rise on inflation/debt.
Higher long-term bond yields are a real signal rather than noise: inflation expectations are ticking up, PCE is above 3.5%, the same yield move is visible in Western Europe and Japan, and U.S. debt/deficits are putting pressure on benchmark rates, especially the 10-year Treasury yield.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield LONG
AI infrastructure investment boom accelerates.
In the Jackson Hole clip, Kevin Walsh argues AI progress is faster than expected, the potential for substantially higher growth is rising, and ever-expanding pools of capital are pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts, with token sales for leading AI labs up 500% year over year.
AI-related infrastructure LONG
High oil prices boost energy profits.
Higher gasoline and diesel prices are a real cost pressure that will feed into inflation, and the energy sector is a net beneficiary with opportunities and high profits for oil companies even as consumers pay more.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
AI boom carries railway-like bust risk.
AI resembles past transformative booms such as railways and the internet: the technology may be real, but boom-bust cycles, unsustainable financial structures, round-tripping of capital, and disclosure gaps mean investors should keep the risk of a bust in mind.
XLK WATCH
China's automation push hurts its economy.
China's policy preference for automation and robots is running ahead of its labor market, contributing to high youth unemployment and removing lower rungs of development; China is not doing itself any favors with this approach.
FXI AVOID
AI boom pushes chip prices higher.
The AI boom is an inflation shock that is pushing up semiconductor and chip prices, feeding into supply chains.
SMH LONG
Fed likely hikes rates in December.
The Fed is likely to defer rate hikes until December because the October FOMC meeting is right before midterm elections, then likely raise rates as inflationary pressure builds; a half-point hike is possible but depends on data and market pressure.
Federal Funds Rate LONG
Dollar faces inflation-driven depreciation.
Inflationary pressure, the temptation to inflate away debt, and running the economy too hot will tend to depreciate the dollar, so the U.S. dollar faces headwinds even though there is no immediate reserve-currency alternative.
UUP SHORT
HIGH
17:35
Sep 03
Sep 03
SNOW 1ST
HPE 1ST
BNO 1ST
DE 1ST
XLV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Snowflake benefits from AI-driven growth.
Snowflake is positioned as one of the big AI beneficiaries within software. Results confirmed strong AI tailwinds, strong adoption of AI products, and a robust outlook, and because software stocks were beaten down this year there is room for continued upside.
SNOW LONG
HPE report underwhelms high expectations.
HPE earnings were not bad but underwhelmed relative to the high expectations already embedded after the stock's strong run and Dell's blowout forecast. The market treated the report as disappointing even though nothing looked broken, leaving the stock under pressure.
HPE AVOID
Iran conflict keeps crude oil elevated.
Oil prices remain elevated because, despite official reassurances about US escorts, shippers are reluctant to use the Strait of Hormuz on fears of attacks and mines. The lack of a real resolution in the strait keeps energy prices supported even if the administration says flows are protected.
BNO LONG
Deere upgraded on replacement cycle.
Evercore is turning bullish on agricultural machinery names because farmers are nearing a replacement cycle for agricultural equipment. The upgrade supports a long view on Deere based on the replacement cycle.
DE LONG
Diversify into healthcare and international equities.
With elevated yields, investors should stay more diversified and give attention to unloved parts of the equity market. US healthcare and international developed markets have distinct but interesting stories, good cash flow, and diversification benefits.
XLV LONG
International developed equities LONG
Europe offers infrastructure and dividend diversification.
Europe faces energy import and Iran-war headwinds, but it has a distinct infrastructure-focused fiscal spending driver. More than half of long-run European international returns have come from dividends, giving the region a downside yield cushion and good diversification value.
VGK LONG
Still favor semis, Mag7, software.
AI leadership is evolving, but the team still likes hardware and semis. They took profits early in the summer and have added back select Magnificent Seven names and software, while staying nimble because the market can get overextended on both sides of hardware and software.
SMH LONG
MAGS LONG
Rotate into beaten-down software names.
Software stocks have been beaten down all year, but major software names such as Salesforce and Microsoft are now reporting positive results and growth forecasts. With many software names trading at compressed multiples relative to their histories, this offers an opportunity to rotate back into software after chips have already done well.
IGV LONG
BWH sees resilient travel demand.
Travel demand is resilient and deliberate. BWH saw a strong summer with stays up 4.3% and average daily rate up, while midscale and upper-midscale brands benefit from trading down. Loyalty contribution rose 5.7%, luxury is doing well, and World Cup and 250th anniversary cities saw 24% growth.
BWH LONG
Elliott wants buybacks at Deutsche Telekom.
Elliott Management opposes Deutsche Telekom's plan to merge with T-Mobile US and instead wants the company to use cash reserves for buybacks and other shareholder-return improvements. The activist push favors Deutsche Telekom over the ambitious, approval-heavy merger.
DTEGY LONG
Nvidia expands into open-source AI software.
Nvidia's nearly $13 billion Hugging Face acquisition is its largest ever and expands exposure to the software side of the AI ecosystem. Hugging Face is a central hub for open-source large language models, and the market is optimistic because this gives Nvidia a stronger position in the AI software and model-sharing ecosystem.
NVDA LONG
Private credit redemption anxiety remains.
Private credit funds are performing well and returns are holding up, but investors cannot shake fears about AI disruption and its potential long-lasting impact on credit markets. Redemption gates are part of the structure to protect remaining investors, but the liquidity mismatch remains a key watchpoint.
BX WATCH
Broadcom's strong quarter not enough.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue is expected to double by 2027 and reach $230 billion by 2028, but that still is not at Nvidia's scale. Customer concentration is a concern because Anthropic is expected to overtake Google as the biggest customer and OpenAI becomes number two, leaving Broadcom dependent on a small group of AI labs.
AVGO AVOID
S&P upside limited after priced-in rally.
The equity market will remain volatile, but the direction and travel are constructive because earnings breadth is strong across sector, region, and market cap. Upward revisions and visibility on AI investments from hyperscalers are creating a positive corporate feedback loop.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
17:02
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY 1ST
QUAL 1ST
SKYY
International developed equities
VGK 1ST
▾
HIGH
US equities constructive on broad earnings strength
She expects continued ping-pong volatility under the surface, with stock-level dispersion the widest in two decades, but the direction of travel for equities is constructive because earnings strength is broad by sector, region and market cap, revisions are rising, and AI-driven ROI is becoming a positive corporate investment loop that supports the equity market.
SPY LONG
Prefer quality businesses with pricing power
With higher yields, certain market segments and companies with weaker balance sheets are more rate-sensitive, so she wants to be thoughtful and own quality businesses with fortress balance sheets and pricing power that can be more durable and resilient.
QUAL LONG
Hyperscaler financing safe; valuation is risk
She does not think hyperscalers face a financing risk from higher rates because they view returns on AI investment as far superior to higher bond yields; the bigger risk is valuation, along with rate-sensitive and weaker-balance-sheet parts of the market.
SKYY WATCH
International developed equities are interesting diversifier
International developed equities are interesting because they have outperformed the US for 18 months, offer a distinct but equally exciting story that complements AI, and have a good cash-flow story that helps diversify portfolios and make them more resilient.
International developed equities LONG
Europe offers fiscal infrastructure and dividends
Despite energy-import and war risks, Europe has a large infrastructure and fiscal spending focus that is a distinct secular growth driver, and dividends have historically supplied more than half of Europe/international developed returns, providing downside yield and diversification even if growth is lower.
VGK LONG
Still like semiconductors and AI hardware
AI leadership will remain dynamic, but she still likes hardware and semis as a multi-year conviction; the team took profits in semis early in the summer, added back to Mag 7 names, software, and semis as moves got overextended, and still wants nimble trading around AI hardware and software chop.
SMH LONG
HIGH
16:45
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
8h
NVDA
CRWD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia benefits from open-source AI scale.
Nvidia is acquiring Hugging Face for $12.93 billion because open-source AI models are now sufficiently good and growing fast, and Hugging Face's scale of 200,000 enterprise customers, 18 million developers, and 3 million models gives Nvidia an open-model growth engine beyond cloud service providers, which represent only half of Nvidia's business. Jensen says the price is worth every penny and the deal is great for Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
CrowdStrike gains from Nvidia open-model cybersecurity.
CrowdStrike's partnership with Nvidia uses Nvidia's open models, such as Nemotron, to create a frontier AI cybersecurity defender. Jensen says this is the first step and that more open-model cybersecurity collaborations are coming, positioning CrowdStrike as an early beneficiary.
CRWD LONG
HIGH
16:33
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
9h
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia acquisition adds distribution and hedging.
Nvidia's $13 billion acquisition of Hugging Face makes sense because Nvidia is buying the place where developers decide which model to run, giving it distribution and topline, accelerating open source growth, and hedging against closed labs that build their own chips.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
16:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
Pablo Gil
9h
Global sovereign long-duration bonds
UK 10-Year Gilt
German 10-year Bund
French 10-year OAT
Japanese 10-year JGB
▾
HIGH
Global long-term sovereign yields breaking higher.
Long-term sovereign yields are rising simultaneously across major developed economies, so this is not one country's problem. The sovereign bond is the base price of money for mortgages, corporate financing, real estate credit and equity valuations. The market is questioning future debt volume, inflation persistence and government credibility, not just central bank policy.
Global sovereign long-duration bonds SHORT
UK gilts target higher yields.
The UK 10-year gilt yield has broken 4.85% and is approaching 5%, a level where the market starts to question how long the government can sustain high deficits before interest payments absorb a growing share of the budget. Technical structure points to targets near the 6.5% area, leaving gilts vulnerable to further price declines.
UK 10-Year Gilt SHORT
German bund yields target 4%.
Germany's 10-year bund yield has exceeded 3%, after years when investors accepted negative yields for safety. The chart structure points to additional rises toward 4%, so Bund prices remain vulnerable.
German 10-year Bund SHORT
French OAT yields approaching 4%.
France's 10-year OAT yield has broken above 3.55-3.60% and is approaching 4%. The market is pricing persistent deficits, public debt above 110% of GDP and political difficulty adjusting spending, so OAT prices face continued pressure.
French 10-year OAT SHORT
Japanese JGB yields rising sharply.
Japan is the most spectacular regime change: after decades of zero rates, deflation and massive BOJ debt purchases, the 10-year JGB yield approaches 3% while 20- and 30-year yields are near or above 4%. Longer maturities are commanding a higher premium, signaling further JGB price weakness.
Japanese 10-year JGB SHORT
Japanese 30-year JGB SHORT
US long Treasuries breaking higher yields.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has broken above 5.2%, clearing a multi-year resistance zone. Long maturities embed inflation, fiscal risk, term premium and uncertainty about lending for decades; the market is demanding more compensation to lock up money long-term. That is the cleanest message of rising long-end yields.
TLT SHORT
Avoid expensive AI-linked equities.
AI can transform the economy, but some AI-linked equities may deliver disappointing returns if investors paid too much for them. The higher the valuation and the greater the sensitivity to a rising discount rate, the more risk those companies face.
High-valuation AI stocks AVOID
Avoid excessive bond duration.
Rising yields hurt existing long-duration bondholders but improve expected returns for new buyers. Since the adjustment may not be over and yields may break new resistance, investors should distinguish earning an attractive coupon from taking excessive duration.
Long-duration government bonds AVOID
Avoid debt-heavy real estate/infrastructure.
AI is becoming an unexpected competitor for capital, electricity, land and financing capacity. Highly indebted traditional real estate and infrastructure projects will need to prove sufficient returns to survive a higher cost of money, leaving the sector exposed.
Listed real estate and infrastructure AVOID
Gold favorable long-term; buy corrections.
The combination of growing debt, persistent deficits and doubts about fiat currencies remains favorable for gold over the long term. However, spikes in real yields can produce important short-term corrections that may become big buying opportunities.
GLD LONG
HIGH
16:28
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
9h
TSLA
▾
MED
Cybercab deployment evidence key for Tesla stock
Tesla's Austin Cybercab event is a key stock catalyst because Morgan Stanley's Tesla analyst said tangible evidence of commercial deployment tends to be an important differentiator for Tesla stock performance at past events; with the stock already up about 28% over the past month from under $300, the reaction depends on whether Elon Musk provides concrete deployment markers rather than just influencer demos.
TSLA WATCH
MED
16:11
Sep 03
Sep 03
Macro Voices
9h
Advanced nuclear energy
Data center nuclear power
Small modular reactors
URA
Supercritical CO2 turbines
▾
HIGH
Hyperscaler PPAs make advanced nuclear financeable.
Hyperscalers and data center builders are creating the conditions for a nuclear renaissance by signing 20-year PPAs around $100 per megawatt hour, something utilities could not do. This creates order books for a dozen or more reactors, provides secure offtake, makes projects financeable, and makes the data center market the most attractive return opportunity for advanced nuclear deployment, with smaller reference reactors expected online around 2028-2029 and cost reductions into the early 2030s.
Advanced nuclear energy LONG
Data center nuclear power LONG
Factory mass production makes reactors cheap.
Erik argues that factory mass production, especially assembly-line manufacturing with robotics, is the single most important thing needed to make nuclear reactors cheaper and faster. He distinguishes true mass production from mere offsite factory fabrication and argues it will do for nuclear reactors what Henry Ford did for automobiles, eventually making nuclear energy cheaper than fossil fuels.
Small modular reactors LONG
Existing US nuclear capacity can expand fastest.
The nuclear fuel supply chain needs significant capacity investment because uranium conversion is highly concentrated, the sole US conversion plant is old, and much current capacity is in Russia; there are executive orders to exit Russian conversion supply by 2028, but no current alternative. This supports a buildout of Western uranium conversion, enrichment, and fuel-cycle capacity.
URA LONG
Supercritical CO2 turbines boost power efficiency.
Supercritical CO2 turbine cycles can operate at higher pressures, shrink turbine equipment, and reach efficiencies around 50%, versus about 30% for conventional steam turbines. That makes them well suited to small nuclear plants, enables mass manufacturing, and can be added as bottoming cycles to existing assets to unlock another 10-20% of power generation.
Supercritical CO2 turbines LONG
Lasers are future uranium enrichment technology.
Laser enrichment is emerging as a potentially more efficient next-generation uranium enrichment technology because lasers can selectively excite uranium-235 versus uranium-238, requiring fewer units. She cites General Matter's updated centrifuge work, GLE's laser separation, and Hexium's lithium-metal laser route as candidates to modernize enrichment.
Laser uranium enrichment LONG
Silicon carbide unlocks smaller power electronics.
Silicon carbide has become cheap thanks to electric vehicle demand and is now moving into power control devices, wide bandgap semiconductors, fuel cladding, and solid state transformers. Its high-voltage switching, thermal tolerance, and small device footprint are enabling lower-cost, smaller power management and grid equipment, and Carly's fund is looking at plays in this space.
Silicon carbide LONG
Wide bandgap semiconductors LONG
Solid state transformers modernize data center grids.
Grid interconnection for data centers is a bottleneck because AI training loads can swing from 80% to 20% within seconds while the grid requires smooth demand. Solid state transformers, rack-level power management devices, and virtual power plants that aggregate demand are being developed to standardize and scale data center grid connections, reducing lead times from years to months or weeks.
Solid-state transformers LONG
Data center power management LONG
Critical materials supply chains are stressed.
Upstream material production is a major opportunity because rare earth refining, mining, and magnet production are concentrated outside the US, aluminum refining largely left the US, and bringing new copper and aluminum mines online is slow. Her fund is focused on technologies that shorten these timelines for grid and manufactured products.
REMX LONG
COPPER LONG
Aluminum LONG
Geothermal drilling technologies unlock subsurface heat.
Geothermal activity is set to increase as better subsurface characterization, modeling, and drilling technology improve access to 400-degree heat closer to loads. Companies like Fervo and Quaise are working on the drilling and subsurface challenges, and there are material opportunities in drill bits and thermally conductive materials, though power density and cost still need to improve.
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY LONG
Fusion power arrives by mid-2030s.
Carly expects fusion power plants to be operational in the early-to-mid 2030s, roughly when many new fission SMRs arrive, because HTS magnets, high-power lasers, and simulation have dramatically improved and fusion can avoid uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, decommissioning, and waste costs, potentially making fusion cheaper than fission.
Nuclear fusion LONG
HTS magnets and lasers enable fusion.
Fusion's acceleration is driven by enabling technologies: high-temperature superconducting magnets have shrunk magnetic fusion devices from stadium scale to house scale, while laser technology from ASML, Star Wars programs, and solid-state diode lasers has driven down the cost per watt. Companies like Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Thea Energy, Examer, and Focused Energy are examples across integrated plants and enablers.
High-temperature superconducting magnets LONG
High-power laser technology LONG
Industrial robotics automate dangerous physical work.
In robotics, Carly's fund focuses on non-humanoid industrial form factors used in dangerous, remote, or difficult tasks, where she sees the most penetration. Applications include shipbuilding, decommissioning, construction, and autonomous crop dusting, with companies like Pyka and Fort Robotics; she believes humanoid home robots are still five-plus years away.
Industrial robotics LONG
HIGH
16:10
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY
BNO
WTI
FXY 1ST
CAD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Earnings keep equity bull market intact.
The primary equity uptrend remains intact because earnings will ultimately support the market; valuations have reset lower while earnings estimates keep being revised higher, and a single quarter-point Fed move is manageable, whereas a series of hikes would be the real risk.
SPY LONG
Iran escalation keeps oil risk premium.
The ongoing Iran conflict places repeated upward pressure on oil prices, and the chance of escalation rises after the midterms as political pressure fades; global spare capacity keeps prices around the $90s rather than $120 or higher, but low inventories and stretched diesel markets keep the risk premium persistent.
BNO WATCH
WTI WATCH
BOJ hikes will strengthen yen.
BOJ rate hikes are the only sustainable way left to reverse yen weakness; officials are expected to signal a more aggressive hiking path, which is driving an unwind of extreme yen short positions and supports further yen strength.
FXY LONG
CAD and CHF become carry funders.
A larger yen carry unwind would shift funding to currencies where central banks are least likely to hike; she thinks the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc become the next preferred carry funders, implying they should weaken.
CAD SHORT
CHF SHORT
Buy Brazil real after election risk.
She likes the Brazilian real as a long-term carry trade but would wait until after the second round of the presidential election because headline risk makes the period before every election the worst time to be long.
BRL WATCH
South African rand has more upside.
South African rand is a favored carry currency for clients because it has more room to outperform, is well diversified by commodities, and benefits from ticking commodity prices.
ZAR LONG
Mexican peso is too crowded.
The Mexican peso is looking crowded, implying less attractive risk/reward and vulnerability relative to other carry currencies.
MXN AVOID
Hated bonds are attractive now.
Bonds are deeply hated and yields have become attractive at 5-6%; she suggests leaning into the intermediate/belly of the Treasury curve rather than staying in cash-like short maturities because higher yields have a self-limiting effect on the economy and investors tend to hate bonds right before they love them.
US Treasuries (5-10 year) LONG
Ten-year yields fall toward 4%.
He sees fair value for 10-year Treasury yields around 4% and a near-term equilibrium around 4.5%, below current levels; inflation softness in housing and goods supports lower yields and supports the long end.
10-Year US Treasury LONG
Semiconductors could drop another 10%.
AI capex is entering a late-stage cycle and the economy may be too small to justify all the spending; semiconductors are the most vulnerable part of the market and could fall another 10% as investors shift focus to 2028 sustainability.
SOC SHORT
Consumer spending rebound supports retail.
Consumer spending is stronger than the July retail sales slowdown suggested; August spending normalized back to near 8% year-over-year retail sales growth, with participation across income levels, supporting US consumer-facing equities.
XLY LONG
AI revenue acceleration overpowers higher rates.
AI-related revenue acceleration for hyperscalers is strong enough to override higher-rate pressure for now; a nine percentage point increase in revenue growth is huge and is what the equity market is hinging on.
AI/hyperscaler equities LONG
Higher rates cap AI stock valuations.
Higher rates raise borrowing costs and will put pressure on AI stock multiples, capping valuations even if AI capex plans continue; he would look for companies with independent earnings upside.
AIQ AVOID
HIGH
15:51
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
9h
NTAP
▾
HIGH
Record quarter, raised outlook, strong momentum.
NetApp had a record-setting fiscal Q1, beating on revenue and EPS, with revenue up 30% YoY and all-flash/high-performance storage up 47% YoY. The company substantially raised its full-year outlook and saw strength across every customer size, industry, and geography. Product gross margin beat was driven by a richer mix of software and higher-performance configurations.
NTAP LONG
HIGH
15:50
Sep 03
Sep 03
Macro Voices
9h
Advanced nuclear energy
Small modular reactors
Microreactors
NLR 1ST
URA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperscaler PPAs unlock nuclear renaissance.
Hyperscalers and data center builders are now willing to sign 20-year $100 per megawatt hour PPAs, creating order books and secure offtake that make advanced nuclear projects financable and open the nuclear renaissance.
Advanced nuclear energy LONG
Mass-produced SMRs cut nuclear costs.
Mass manufacturing reactor components and small shippable reactor units can shrink lead times from years to months and drive nuclear costs down to compete with diesel first and later other generation; reference plants by 2028 or 2029 start this cost curve.
Small modular reactors LONG
Microreactors replace remote diesel generators.
Advanced microreactors can replace large diesel generator sets at remote mining and Arctic installations, eliminating weekly fuel flights and creating large cost savings even though that niche is smaller than data centers.
Microreactors LONG
US needs exportable reactor model.
Global nuclear construction is split between Chinese and Russian designs, while the US lacks a proven on-time, on-budget reactor model; getting a US reference microreactor built creates a pathway to larger exportable US reactors.
NLR LONG
Restart old nuclear plants fastest.
Uranium conversion capacity is highly concentrated, with much capacity in Russia and only one old US plant; executive orders require exiting Russian conversion supply by 2028 but no alternative yet exists, so companies filling the gap are well positioned.
URA LONG
Laser enrichment may dominate uranium enrichment.
Laser enrichment can selectively excite U-235 rather than both isotopes, making enrichment much more efficient than gas centrifuges; GLE and Hexium are pursuing laser and lithium routes, so laser enrichment is likely the future though not fully proven.
Uranium enrichment LONG
Supercritical CO2 turbines boost efficiency.
Supercritical CO2 power cycles allow higher pressures, much smaller turbine equipment, mass manufacturing, and up to 50% thermal efficiency; bottoming cycles can add another 10% to 20% more power generation from existing assets.
Supercritical CO2 turbines LONG
Fusion could undercut fission by 2030s.
Fusion power plants could be operational in the early to mid 2030s, around the same time as larger SMRs, and should cost less than fission because hydrogen fuel eliminates uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, and storage; HTS magnets and lasers have dramatically shrunk devices.
Nuclear fusion LONG
Fusion enabling tech and superconducting magnets.
Both integrated fusion power plant developers and enabling component suppliers are attractive; high-temperature superconducting magnets and laser technologies are key, and Spinner Energy applies superconducting magnets to data center and grid power transfer.
Fusion enabling technologies LONG
High-temperature superconducting magnets LONG
Silicon carbide enables compact power electronics.
Silicon carbide became cheap thanks to electric vehicle scale and enables small, high-voltage, thermally tolerant power devices; it is important for solid-state transformers, grid interconnections, and nuclear cladding, with wafering advances like Halo Industries.
Silicon carbide LONG
Wide bandgap semiconductors LONG
Copper and aluminum supply chains tight.
Copper and aluminum are critical for the electric grid and manufactured components; US aluminum refining largely disappeared and new mine timelines are scary, so shrinking timelines and adding supply is a key opportunity.
COPPER LONG
Aluminum LONG
Solid-state transformers cut interconnection lead times.
Transformers are a limiting grid interconnection component; companies are mass manufacturing solid-state transformers using silicon carbide to cut lead times from years to weeks or months, which is essential to connect more nuclear and data center power.
Solid-state transformers LONG
Rare earths and magnets attractive.
Upstream material production for the electric grid and energy hardware, including rare earth element refining, mining, and magnet production, is an attractive opportunity as new energy and grid equipment scales.
REMX LONG
800V data centers need power management.
Nvidia's 800V data center distribution roadmap and the scale of one megawatt per cabinet create a need for low-cost, standardized rack-level power management and smooth grid interfaces because AI training loads swing violently.
Data center power management LONG
Virtual power plants reduce peak load.
Aggregating flexible demand into virtual power plants can reduce peak load and behave like a real power plant, reducing the need to build additional generation capacity.
Virtual power plants LONG
Geothermal depends on deep drilling advances.
Geothermal is attracting more activity and could reach 5 to 7 cents per kilowatt hour if deep drilling and power density improve; Quaise is working on cost-effective deep drilling near load, and drill-bit materials are a cross-industry opportunity.
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY LONG
Industrial robotics dominate near term.
Industrial robotics in dangerous, remote, or difficult tasks is seeing the most penetration now, including crop dusting via Pyka, shipbuilding, decommissioning, and construction, while home humanoid robots are five-plus years out; robotic safety remains key.
Industrial robotics LONG
Humanoid robotics WATCH
HIGH
15:40
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
9h
BTC
GLD
UNI
HOOD
LIT
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin bullish above 79k.
Crypto and Bitcoin are following gold's 2% breakout. He is bullish if Bitcoin clears mid-$79k and then $82k, which would confirm 'go time' and a bull-market leg. He later adds Q4 is a 'guaranteed bottom' and the market is in a bull trend.
BTC LONG
Gold ripping amid macro uncertainty.
Gold is up 2% and putting in a striking candle. Macro is bad and Fed/Warsh are in a rate trap, so gold is going nuts and looks amazing.
GLD LONG
Uniswap benefits from Robinhood chain.
Uniswap's chart looks unbelievable; he caught a prior breakout and sees it as a huge beneficiary of Robinhood chain activity.
UNI LONG
Robinhood stock leverages crypto chain revenue.
Robinhood's chain did $4M in fees in one day, annualizing near $1.4B or about 25% of total company revenue, making HOOD a crypto proxy. The stock is up 8-14% on crypto flows, not just Trump accounts, and he thinks it can really go.
HOOD LONG
Fed September no-change odds are bullish.
He bet heavily on no Fed rate move in September; odds rose from 44% to 55-62%. Waller leans hold. If the Fed does nothing after hawkish talk, risk markets can rally; if it hikes, both Fed and Treasury are trapped.
FOMC September no-change LONG
Brent crude is breaking higher.
Brent crude is around $98 and about to break $100 as war and inflation rage; oil is going parabolic and rates are reacting to it.
BNO LONG
Solana losing activity to Robinhood.
Solana is getting 'mogged' by Robinhood chain; Pump.fun fee activity is at its lowest since August while on-chain activity is elsewhere, and Solana's high fees hurt small memecoin traders. He does not declare Solana dead but sees near-term pressure and a need for a new narrative.
SOL AVOID
Circle looks strong with crypto.
Circle stock is up 7% and looks pretty good as a crypto proxy; it is ripping with crypto.
USDC LONG
Robinhood chain attracts OG crypto capital.
Robinhood chain is becoming the new on-chain speculative center; OG crypto traders who ignored Solana are returning, TVL is still low, and meme-stock tokenization is a new game. He is buying Robinhood coins and highlights leaders Pawns, CashCat, and AI.
Pawns LONG
CASHCAT LONG
Pump remains his core long.
He is heavily long Pump and has not sold any; Pump is the biggest alt gainer, has app/buyer-base advantages, and if Bitcoin breaks out, Pump should lead again. He plans to trim some but hold the rest.
PUMP LONG
Zcash privacy narrative and chart breakout.
Zcash has a diehard outside-crypto buyer base tied to surveillance-state fears and private money; he sees it as a reflexive, Lindy narrative asset. The chart reclaimed his 880 entry and he expects a nuclear move.
ZEC LONG
Anomcoin benefits from top trader narrative.
Anomcoin is likely the savior narrative for Solana because top trader Anom is the cycle's social-trading narrative; if Bitcoin rips, Anomcoin could go to $1B. He says the coin should do very well.
ANOM LONG
Hyperliquid has non-crypto demand.
Hyperliquid is one of the few coins with a buyer base and use case outside crypto; it was a top pick for that reason.
HYPE LONG
Anthropic pre-IPO markets could be monster.
Anthropic pre-IPO perp open interest surpassed $10M; if this market really catches, it could be a monster. He is watching it as a pre-IPO trading area.
Anthropic pre-IPO WATCH
HIGH
15:27
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
10h
SNOW
▾
HIGH
AI flywheel drives Snowflake growth.
Snowflake's AI flywheel is accelerating: more data is moving to Snowflake because having data on Snowflake makes it AI-ready, and Snowflake's AI products help customers get value quickly, which drives new customers and new data. The company posted $1.49 billion in product revenue, up 37% year over year.
SNOW LONG
HIGH
15:02
Sep 03
Sep 03
Morgan Stanley
10h
WEALTH 1ST
▾
MED
Customization demand benefits wealth management firms.
Customization and tax management are becoming table stakes for serving high-net-worth clients; most high-net-worth investors expect customized portfolios and proactive tax reduction, and asset/wealth managers are investing in scalable technology and fractional shares to extend these strategies to mass affluent clients.
WEALTH LONG
MED
14:35
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
10h
U.S. Treasury complex
▾
MED
Treasury curve bull steepening as yields drop
Treasury yields are falling across the curve and the market is bull steepening, with short-end yields dropping faster than long-end yields after Waller from the Fed shifted rate expectations; all maturity yields are lower on the day.
U.S. Treasury complex WATCH
MED
14:28
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
11h
SNOW 1ST
DDOG 1ST
NOW 1ST
CRM
AVGO 1ST
▾
MED
Snowflake rallies on strong quarterly results
Snowflake shares surged more than 20% in early trading after reporting strong quarterly results.
SNOW LONG
Snowflake rally lifts Datadog, ServiceNow, Salesforce
Snowflake's strong results and 20% rally are lifting software peers including Datadog, ServiceNow, and Salesforce, signaling positive read-through for software names.
DDOG LONG
NOW LONG
CRM LONG
Broadcom slips on weak revenue forecast
Broadcom shares slipped as investors reacted negatively to the chipmaker's fourth-quarter revenue forecast.
AVGO AVOID
Nvidia's Hugging Face deal scales open AI
Cramer applauds Nvidia buying Hugging Face because the US needs its own open-model ecosystem to blunt Chinese progress; he says the deal is asymmetric because AMD or Broadcom buying Hugging Face would have been sold off, and Nvidia avoiding a lost bidding war preserves its perceived edge in open AI.
NVDA LONG
MED
14:21
Sep 03
Sep 03
IHI 1ST
European cybersecurity
European critical infrastructure
▾
HIGH
Europe must boost defense spending
Martin argues that Russia's aggression and increasing recklessness, combined with a shifting US posture, are forcing the European Union to do far more on security and defense capability. He says Europe has major gaps in self-reliance and that eastern flank states view Russia as an existential threat, supporting stronger European defense spending.
IHI LONG
Europe must invest in cybersecurity infrastructure
Martin says security has a broad economic dimension that includes critical infrastructure such as energy interconnectors, subsea cables, and cybersecurity, and that Europe needs more investment and collaboration to counter sophisticated hybrid threats.
European cybersecurity LONG
European critical infrastructure LONG
HIGH
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